Allison Kilkenny: Unreported

First thoughts: The great ’08 paradox – First Read –

Posted in Barack Obama, Democrats, politics, Republicans by allisonkilkenny on March 13, 2008

New Poll from

We all know how accurate polls can be, so take it with a grain of salt…

Interesting polls from NBC and The Wall Street Journal:

The great ‘08 paradox:

The party’s fav/unfav has increased: 34%-49%
Bush’s approval rating remains in the 30s
People who want a president, who takes a different approach than Bush: 76%
Believe they’re worse off than they were four years ago: 43%
Obama beats McCain in a national election: 47%-44%
Clinton beats McCain in a national election: 47%-45%
Republicans say they would have preferred a different GOP nominee: 52%
Democrats that have a negative view of McCain: 44%

Style vs. substance:

Obama would have a better chance of beating McCain: 48%
Clinton would have a better chance of beating McCain: 38%
A candidate’s leadership style and trustworthiness are more important than ideas and policies: 48%
Ideas and policies are more important that style and trustworthiness: 32%
Obama has improved on eight of 10 attributes, including the commander-in-chief question (he trails Clinton here by just five points among Democrats).
Clinton, on the other hand, has stagnated on nine out of 10 attributes and has dropped in the other: being likeable. Overall,
Clinton leads Obama in the Dem horserace, 47%-43%

Legacy watch

Bill Clinton’s legacy viewed favorably (in March ’07): 49%-35%.
Now it’s a net negative: 42%-45%.
His numbers have gradually gotten worse as the campaign has gone on. In November, it was 47%-40%; in January, it was 44%-41%, and now it’s 42%-45%. The reason? His support among African Americans and Obama voters has greatly eroded. Similarly, the poll shows that Obama voters have a more negative impression of Clinton than Clinton voters do of Obama.

Uniting the Dems:

Nearly four in 10 Democrats believe the protracted primary is bad for the party, and just one in four think the long process is good.
Obama voters have a lower opinion of Clinton than Clinton voters have of Obama.
Clinton’s fav/unfav among Obama voters was 69%-17%.
Now it has decreased to 45%-33%.
Meanwhile, Obama’s fav/unfav among Clinton voters was 55%-20%.
Now it’s pretty much the same at 53%-24%.

Other interesting numbers in the poll:

The percentage of respondents who correctly identified Obama as a Christian increased from 18% to 37%.
But those identifying him as a Muslim also increased five points: 8% to 13%
Globalization has been bad for the country: 58%
Congress’ approval rating: 19%.
View Nader in a positive light: 14%

The poll was conducted March 7-10 among 1,012 registered voters, and it has a 3.1% margin of error.

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